August 17, 2009
Take Your Own Credit Measurements

Credit card lenders are a brave bunch.

Their business of (blindly) extending credit is based on three key assumptions:

  1. Consumers will take a short-term no-interest loan to make a purchase.
  2. Consumers will overspend/undersave to the point that they pay interest on the loans.
  3. Merchants will take a haircut to complete a sale.

As each one of these assumptions has broken down over the past few years, the industry is moving quickly to sure up its profit-taking mechanisms in the face of the Credit CARD Act. But a recent interaction with Discover brought me to reconsider how many of these lending banks make financial decisions.

On a recent statement, I expected to see a bill for $1.62. When I checked online, I had received a “small credit balance” and a zeroed-out statement. Card companies have different minimums for which they will bill. Discover, apparently, is among the highest at $2.00. Anything less as an outstanding balance, keep it. It’s not worth it.

Oddly enough, according to the customer service representative I spoke with, Discover considers the total cost of mailing a statment and receiving and processing a check when deciding to issue a credit. While I have not received a printed statement or written a check for a credit card bill in years, I can understand the analysis. Not all companies are as generous, so I’ll take the gravy.

But this experience, and a recent FiLife article, had me thinking about the opposite situation. What if I pushed the limit on the other side? Instead of buying so little that the company waives the bill, what if I maxed out every card and then just paid the minimum without reusing the cards? How long could I last?

I first did a credit card inventory. On a spreadsheet, I entered each card, its credit line and annual percentage rate (APR). You can start by getting a free credit report at annualcreditreport.com, but you’ll have to go to your card site or statement for the rate.

  • Aggregate Revolving Credit Line: $118,500
  • Weighted Average APR: 12.57%

That anyone in their right mind, individually or collectively, would extend an unsecured $118,500 to me is exemplary of credit card companies’ willingness to take risk. That my APR would range from 7.75% to 18.99% is even more confusing. I used weighted average in order to fully value/discount each APR by the size of its corresponding credit line.

In considering my own capital structure, these lines of credit are undifferentiated and junior to my student loans. They are all variable lines with no seniority and, theoretically, should all be priced the same.

Assuming 4% minimum payments, I would pay of this mother loan in 19.6 years. It’s a pointless figure—let’s call it Maxed-Out Credit Age—but might be an interesting exercise for consumers to take a real look at how long and far they can drive their credit.

What is your maxed-out credit age?

To find out, add up your credit lines, determine the weighted average APR and then assume a 4% minimum payment with this calculator.

May 14, 2009
Government Shackles Must Really Hurt

Major banks can’t wait to throw themselves from the TARPean Rock.

Take American Express and J.P. Morgan Chase, for instance. Both issued non-FDIC guaranteed debt on May 13. Now in the ranks of several other “banks” (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon), these firms are looking to crawl out from the burden of 5% preferred TARP funding by selling common stock or issuing non-FDIC-backed debt.

Where I get caught up is in the speed and pricing. Given the draconian, retroactive rule setting, the TARPtakers are finding operating on government cheese with government strings to be a little uncomfortable.  (Refresher, TARP is 5% preferred for 5 years and 9% perpetual preferred after that. But the salary rules and subsequent arguments “if you take X, you must do Y” are taking their toll.)

So, what does it mean when American Express sells 5-year notes at 7.25% just days after Microsoft sells 5-years at 2.95%? Better yet, J.P. Morgan Chase - deemed to be among the strongest banks - priced its 5-year at 4.65%.

Such wide spreads over Microsoft (and Treasurys!) prove that the finance companies will rid themselves of government’s grip at any cost. For J.P. Morgan Chase, of course they would issue the debt. It’s LESS than TARP. American Express - not so much.

American Express - where is the advantage? Are taxpayer bosses, threatening to turn common, really worth the nearly 600 basis point spread to Treasury securities.

Why doesn’t American Express avail itself to government goods until it too can refinance when business settles and spreads come in? What does AmEx know that we don’t which would make them willing to take such a large spread? Could it be that they are taking a real view on rates?

Better lock in those 5, 10 and 30s before inflation starts to make those 9% perpetual preferred look good.

Of course, the Treasury has made the financing decision now one of psychology, employee retention and executive pay as opposed to simple capital structure and finance.

12:39am  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZaxaYy6QGAI
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Filed under: TARP Banks Credit